The Tampa Bay Rays kicked off their six-game home stand with a stinging 4-3 loss to the Texas Rangers. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

With the exception of a ninth inning, two-run homer, Alex Cobb put together his best start of the season Friday night — working into the ninth inning for the first time this season. Yet the Texas Rangers rallied late against both Cobb and Brad Boxberger, and beat the Rays 4–3.

The Rangers scored the first run of the night when Elvis Andrus hit a first inning solo-shot on a fastball that Cobb left over the middle of the plate, and not high enough to miss the bat.

But Brad Miller got the Rays on the board when did the same thing with two outs in the fourth inning off Yu Darvish.

Through the front five innings, each starter matched the other — almost pitch-for-pitch — and allowed just one run on two hits. While Darvish challenged the Rays within the zone, dominating them to the tune of 12 strikeouts, Cobb pitched to contact and got more than his fair share of weak contact. But both hurlers were ultimately  susceptible to the long ball — a fact that became evident in the sixth, eighth, and ninth innings.

Tampa Bay took the lead in the sixth inning when Corey Dickerson crushed a 94 mph, center cut fastball off the batter’s eye.

It was the 18th homer for Corey “the pride of Old North East St. Petersburg” Dickerson, and his first since June 24th.

Then in the eighth, Mallex Smith hit an opposite field homer off Darvish, ending a 1-for-24 stretch, for a two-run lead.

It was Smith’s second homer of the season.

With 95 pitches under his belt, Cobb retook the mound in the ninth inning. Joey Gallo welcomed Cobb rather rudely with a double to right-center on the first pitch he saw, before Shin-Soo Choo hit a first pitch opposite field homer to left, to tie the game at three.

That chased Cobb, who allowed three runs on five hits, while striking out four without walking a batter. Up to that point, Cobb had pitched very well, and he leaned very heavily on his split/change. Of the 99 total pitches pitches thrown, 46 were split/changeups, 33 were fastballs, and 24 were curveballs. 34 of Cobb’s split/changeups went for strikes (74%, 26 swings, 9 swings-and-misses).

Alex Colome took the mound in relief and retired the next two batters before Adrian Beltre singled to right. Mike Napoli then worked a walk on a 3-2 pitch after falling behind in the count 0-2. That brought Rougned Odor to the plate. The  heavy fisted lefty grounded out to second, keeping the game tied.

Brad Boxberger took over in the 10th inning and quickly walked Jonathan Lucroy on four pitches — the dreaded leadoff walk. Delino DeShields Jr. pinch-ran for Lucroy, and was sacrificed to second by Carlos Gomez. Gallo was next, and flew out to right which moved DeShields up to third. After Choo was intentionally walked, Andrus reached on a well-struck infield hit which drove in the go ahead run. The hit and the run were this first of each that Boxberger had given up since returning from the DL.

Alex Claudio, who threw a perfect ninth inning, allowed a leadoff single to pinch-hitter Steven Souza Jr. to start the 10th. However, Hechavarria bunted into a double play on a ball in front of the plate, and pinch-hitter Trevor Plouffe lined to left, ending the game with a bitter taste in the mouths of the 24,461 fans in attendance last night.

The New What Next

Game two of the series takes place tonight with Chris Archer (7-5, 3.91 ERA, 3.12 FIP) on the mound. He’ll start opposite Andrew Cashner (4-8, 3.58 ERA, 4.56 FIP).

Archer struggled Sunday, yet he limited the Angels to just two runs over six innings — picking up his fourth consecutive quality start. Even though the right-hander issued no more than three free passes in any of his previous 10 starts, he walked five Angels … although to his credit he was able to pitch around his control problems for the most part. Archer looks to snap a streak of 12 consecutive outings with at least two runs allowed Saturday. He notched a win against the Rangers on May 31, the only time he faced them this season.

Cashner is 1-3 with a 4.76 ERA in his last four starts and 4-5 with a 4.28 ERA in his last nine. The right-hander relies primarily on a 92 mph two-seam sinker and a 94 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in an 85 mph changeup, an 88 mph cutter and an 82 mph curveball; and is 2-6 with a 4.33 ERA in nine starts on the road. This will be his first career start against the Rays. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-4, 2 2B, 1 RBI), Corey Dickerson (2-3, 2B, 3 B, RBI), Brad Miller (2-2, RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (3-7, 2B, BB), Shane Peterson (3-5, 2B, 3B, BB)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 7/22/17 Starting Lineup

Souza Jr. RF
Dickerson LF
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Ramos C
Miller DH
Beckham 2B
Smith CF
Hechavarria SS
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

Should Cobb have started the ninth?

A question remains: Did Kevin Cash manage with his heart or head last night? In other words, should he have let Cobb attempt to throw a complete game? To his credit, Alex hadn’t allowed a runner past first base since the first inning, and hadn’t thrown less than 60% of strikes in any frame. What’s more, from the third inning through the eighth, the Rangers collected only two hits, both singles. Those alone lead you to believe that the bulldog should have retaken the mound in the ninth. But as Jason Collette (The Process Report) noted, after the homer to Choo, 16% of Cobb’s runs in 2017 have come when he’s been allowed to face hitters a fourth time through the order. The lineup was about to flip over for a fourth time, and Cobb is no stranger to Times Through the Order misfortune.

A quick look at Cobb’s wOBA* through the order show that Cobb, over his career, is very good the first-through-third times through the order, although he falls off a cliff the fourth time through: .305 first, .275 second, .292 third, and .507 the fourth. His numbers in 2017 conform to that trend: .303 first, .286 second, .299 third, and .494 fourth. Friday night was no different.

Collette dug a little deeper and found that Choo, although not traditionally successful on the night against Cobb, saw a good number of pitches and wasn’t fooled by what was thrown his way.

Choo, who as you recall hit the homer, saw a total of 10 pitches from Cobb heading into his ninth inning plate appearance, and had not whiffed on any of them. Rather he made hard contact (but right at Adeiny Hechevarria) to start the game, then softly grounded out the other two times he stepped into the box. Still, contact is contact, and the odds were against Cobb coaxing a strikeout in that particular plate appearance. At most, Cobb could have hoped for a soft grounder that would have allowed the runner to move up to third.

A rested Alex Colome — who has a 12.6% swinging strike rate (compare that to Cobb’s 6.8% SwStr% on the season) — was warming in the ‘pen, and he should have started the frame. In the very least, Cash should have pulled Cobb at the first inkling of trouble … you know, like a line drive double to right on the first pitch of the ninth. The rest, as they say, is history.

Whatever the case, a tough decision had to be made by Cash … one in which there was about a 50/50 chance of success. Unfortunately things did not go as hoped for by Cash, and during a pennant race costly decisions here or there can make or break a postseason berth.

*Stats and figures, courtesy of The Process Report.

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