The Tampa Bay Rays suffered their first (big) loss of the spring on Saturday, falling to the Pittsburgh Pirates, 7-2 in Port Charlotte.
With the loss in mind, I thought it to be a good opportunity to remind you that it really is not that big of a deal — it is just Spring Training after all. Last Sunday I posted a piece titled The X-Rays Spex guide to Spring Training 2017. Now is as good of a time as any to repost that in its entirety. Updates for today’s game between the Rays and Red Sox follow.
Sample sizes are so small that any meaningful conclusion about a player’s performance cannot truly be determined
Everyday starters, and players getting serious roster consideration, will get around 60 at bats during the spring. The small sample size isn’t enough to give an accurate depiction of what to expect out of a batter. Why? Among other things, the first statistic to stabilize for hitters is strikeout percentage, and it takes at least 60 plate appearances to do so. Ultimately hitters aren’t worried about looking for the perfect pitch to incur damage upon, they are trying to get their timing down. Anything above and beyond that is icing on the cake.
Conditions for hitting in south Florida are vastly different from The Trop
The Rays play in a dome where there is less air resistance on the ball in flight, and wind is not a factor. Compare that with Charlotte Sports Park, where a stiff breeze blowing in can turn a home run into a routine fly ball.
I distinctly recall a 2015 Grapefruit League game that took place in Tampa between the Rays and Yankees. Catcher Luke Maile hit a ninth inning double that should have left the confines of Steinbrenner Field, however, the wind resistance applied to the ball was enough to keep it in the park. True, that game took place in Tampa, not Port Charlotte, but you catch my drift.
Pitchers aren’t worried about setting up a hitter to freeze him with a nasty slider, rather they are concerned with staying healthy and building arm strength
Pitchers are focused on getting ready for the season, not getting batters out. It takes time for pitchers to build their arm strength. Dips in velocity are going to happen, homers are going to happen, and a pitcher might look like, well…crap prior to Opening Day. A handful of poor spring performances prior to Opening Day isn’t indicative of a pitchers future performance. A good example of that is Corey Kluber, the 2014 American League Cy Young Award winner. Kluber posited a gaudy 5.60 ERA in Spring Training, yet ended the season as the best pitcher in the AL.
Pitchers use Spring Training to work on pitches
It was written elsewhere:
The time for trial and error is now. Spending time during the season experimenting with a two-seam fastball or a circle change is not a good idea. That should be reserved for side sessions and bullpens. During Spring Training, however, there is absolutely no negative impact to trying out some changes that could eventually be beneficial. Sometimes pitchers will go out to the mound only throwing fastballs away in order to work on their command over the outer half of the plate. Sometimes a pitcher will only work inside and give up a couple of bombs from missing spots.
‘Nuff said.
Players are going to make errors, and that’s fine
Cloudless skies turn poppers into doubles, and errors from players playing out of position likely would not happen during the regular season. Spring Training is a time for players, many of whom are untested at the Major League level, to prove their worth. Instead, watch how a player jumps on the ball. Is he quick? Does he have good range? Do his movements seem fluid or stilted? What about his arm? Also, pay attention to where a player is stationed.
Take note of who plays where and for how long
Earlier this week, Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote that Rays manager Kevin Cash plans have Brad Miller make the move to second base as the replacement for Logan Forsythe.
We’re going to get him as many reps as we can at second base, as simple as that, Cash said. He is up for the challenge. … Brad Miller is bought in and is all about the team. He’ll do whatever. But we think for our team this spring we need to get him as acclimated as possible at second base. He is still going to play short because we know that versatility will help us. But he is all about playing second base and being a really good one.
Tim Beckham, Nick Franklin and Daniel Robertson are other internal options on the right side of the infield.
Because the Rays re-signed Logan Morrison to play first, Miller is not likely to get much time there. Instead Rickie Weeks is expected to get some reps at first base, as well as DH, and perhaps the outfield.
Watch for injuries
Although minor, both Jose De Leon and Erasmo Ramirez incurred injuries earlier in the week — De Leon with mid back tightness, and Ramirez with a tweaked left hamstring. Both since have recovered, and are back on schedule. Small injuries are to be expected, while others can prove to be detrimental, like Alex Cobb’s season ending UCL tear in 2015.
The win-loss record at the end of the spring means nothing
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim went 19-8 in the Cactus League last season, and the Minnesota Twins sported a 19-11 record in the Grapefruit League. The positive Spring Training outcomes were ultimately meaningless for both teams. Meanwhile Boston went 14-18 and the Cubs went 11-19, and both teams appeared in the postseason — with the Chicago winning the World Series.
The New What Next
Chris Archer will make his first spring start on Sunday against those dastardly Red Sox — his next-to-last tuneup before joining Team USA for the World Baseball Classic. Also slated to pitch are RHP Chase Whitley, RHP Kevin Gadea, RHP Chih-Wei Hu, LHP Ryan Yarbrough, RHP Jeff Ames and RHP Andrew Kittredge.
Justin Williams and Joe McCarthy, playing right field and left field respectively, are over from the minor league side of the Rays’ camp. With Colby Rasmus, Steven Souza Jr. and Mallex Smith recovering from injuries, and considering the long spring, the Rays do not want to overuse someone this early.
Tim Beckham will get the start at third base, although he should get some outfield reps some time this week.
Rays 2/26/17 Starting Lineup
Robertson SS
Kiermaier DH
Weeks 1B
Miller 2B
Beckham 3B
Sucre C
Williams RF
Field CF
McCarthy LF
Archer RHP
Noteworthiness
— Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) has three takeaways from yesterday’s ball game:
- CF Kevin Kiermaier is already ready to go. Kiermaier could barely contain his excitement over reporting to camp, and he was in full hustle mode in his Saturday debut, trying, albeit unsuccessfully, to get to second when a blooper dropped in and covering lots of ground in the outfield. “KK was flying all around the outfield,” manager Kevin Cash said. “He’s fun to watch.”
- RHP David Carpenter could make a pitch for a bullpen spot. Dumped after a short stint in spring training last year, Carpenter worked hard, including a stint in the independent Atlantic League, to improve his velocity, and it showed. “It definitely did,” Cash said. “It looked like it was coming better out of his hand than at any point when we saw him the last time.” Though the stadium radar readings weren’t working early, Carpenter said based on the hitters’ swings he too felt his velo was better.
- Rickie Weeks will be able to handle first base. Though he doesn’t, at 34, have the range to play second as he did most of his career, Weeks still has the smooth hands of a middle infielder and once he gets the footwork and positioning down he should be good to go.