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Rays World Series game one notes

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Hello world, meet Tyler Glasnow. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After two well deserved days off — well, at least for the Rays — the top two big-league ball clubs will kick off the 2020 World Series at Globe Life Field tonight in Arlington, TX. Tampa Bay and Los Angeles had the top two records during the regular season.

The Rays are appearing in their second-ever World Series and seeking their first-ever title. Meanwhile, the Dodgers now have reached the Fall Classic three times in four years, although they haven’t won a title in 31 years.

After playing their last 10 playoff games in Arlington, the Dodgers have familiarity with Globe Life Park. On the other hand, the Rays are familiar with playing on turf and had a workout on Monday.

The two teams split four regular-season games last year.

The Rays set their roster earlier today, which we wrote about in the series preview (linked below).

TNWN: Rays vs. Dodgers — a World Series preview

The New What Next

Tyler Glasnow (2-1, 4.66 ERA) will get the start Tuesday night, pitching opposite of Clayton Kershaw (2-1, 3.32 ERA).

Tyler Glasnow got the start on Wednesday and he was good, but not great. The right-hander allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out five on 96 pitches (55 strikes, 57% strike rate, 20% SwStr). Glasnow allowed a first-inning solo shot and an RBI double in the third inning to Jose Altuve, and a two-run blast to George Springer on a 99 mph, 3-1 fastball with the game scored knotted up at two in the bottom of the fifth. Yet, he also limited the damage by inducing weak contact and six ground balls. It was a rare power outburst against a hurler that maintained a 1.73 HR/9 in 2020 (and a 0.59 HR/9 in 2019). Glasnow enters his next start — assuming the Rays move on to the World Series — with a 4.66 ERA, 5.88 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, and a 3.1 K/BB across 19-1/3 playoff innings.

Clayton Kershaw surrendered four runs on seven hits and one walk over five-plus innings in game four of the NLCS. He struck out four. Kershaw only gave up a solo homer to Marcell Ozuna during his outing, although he allowed a single and back-to-back doubles to start the sixth before being removed. It should be noted that the southpaw has not been healthy, as he has been dealing with some back issues. Kershaw is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in two career starts against Tampa Bay, however, he maintains a 4.31 postseason ERA extending back to 2008. The left-hander relies primarily on a hard 88 mph worm-killer slider and a 92 mph four-seam fastball which is straight as an arrow and has some added backspin, while also mixing in a 74 mph 12-6 curveball with exceptional bite.

Both the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

Rays 10/20/20 Starting Lineup

  1. Diaz 1B
  2. Lowe 2B
  3. Arozarena DH
  4. Renfroe RF
  5. Margot LF
  6. Wendle 3B
  7. Adames SS
  8. Kiermaier CF
  9. Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— The dude abides:

— Facepalm emoji.

— Nailed it:

TNWN: One last game vs. Houston

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Brandon Lowe went 1-3 on Friday with a walk and a run scored. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After dropping their third consecutive game to the Houston Astros on Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays will play one last game in the 2020 ALCS tonight: a winner-take-all contest that will determine which American League ball club will advance to the World Series, in Arlington. It’s the second consecutive playoff series where Tampa Bay will play an elimination game, having edged the Yankees 2-1 in game five of the ALDS. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) writes, “In advancing to the franchise’s only World Series in 2008, Tampa Bay lost games five and six to Boston, losing a 7-0 lead in game five, but managed to win game 7, 3-1.” They have led for two total innings in the last three games against Houston.

The Astros are just the second team ever to force a game seven after being down three-games-to-none, with the Red Sox coming back to beat the Yankees in 2004 by winning four straight.

The pitching failed last night behind a sub-par start by Blake Snell, very hittable outings by Diego Castillo and Shane McClanahan, and an appearance by Jośe Alvarado that left a lot to be desired, yet the Rays bats again were ice-cold. Tampa Bay went 0-4 with runners and scoring position on Friday, and are 0-10 wRISP since Thursday.

And while Astros starter Framber Valdez threw 56% of his pitches for strikes, Rays hitters showed zero discipline against the curveball throwing southpaw, who coaxed a 30% SwStr% — all on his curveball. Mike Zunino leads the pack with a 40.2% SwStr% and a 31.5% chase rate, according to StatCast. Both Willy Adames and Brandon Lowe follow closely behind Zunino.

To their credit, Adames and Lowe each collected hits last night, combining to go 2-5 with an RBI, a run scored, and three walks. Lowe actually has hits in each of the last two games, including a homer.

Manuel Margot was a bright spot in Friday’s contest. Margot homered twice and now has three homers in this series (five in the postseason) to go along with 11 RBI. If Kevin Kiermaier does get the start tonight, expect Margot to play in either left or right field.

It would also appear that a few players are due a breakout (as it relates to xBA and xwOBA) assuming they can work good at-bats against Lance McCullers Jr., who will be making his second start of the ALCS for Houston.

Both teams are expected to take an “all hands on deck” approach. Both Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough could be used in relief for Tampa Bay, while the same could be said for Jośe Urquidy and Houston. Ryan Pressly, the Astros’ closer, has been used three days in a row, and might not be available tonight.

The New What Next

Charlie Morton (2-0, 0.90 ERA) will get the start tonight, pitching opposite of Lance McCullers Jr. (0-1, 4.09 ERA).

Charlie Morton got the start in game two of the ALCS and allowed five hits, a walk, and hit a batter while striking out five across five scoreless frames on 96 pitches (59 strikes, 61% strike rate, 14% SwStr%). Yet, even with all the traffic on the base paths, Morton limited the Astros scoring chances and held them to 0-5 with runners in scoring position — stranding runners in scoring position in the first four frames. Morton, who won a 4–2 contest in game two will start tonight. Morton has pitched in three previous winner take all games and is 3-0 with a 0.64 ERA.

Lance McCullers Jr. outpitched Morton outpitched his former teammate, striking out 11 across seven innings. McCullers was victimized by a two-out first-inning error that was followed by a Margot three-run homer. From that point on, the right-hander retired 14 in a row — nine via the strikeout. He did allow another home run, a solo shot off the bat of Zunino on a 96 mph fastball. He has now allowed five homers in his last two playoff outings, with four by right-handed batters. Key Matchups (including the postseason): Randy Arozarena (2-3), Manuel Margot (3-9, 2) HR)

Noteworthiness and the starting lineup are below.

Rays 10/17/20 Starting Lineup

  1. Margot RF
  2. Lowe 2B
  3. Arozarena LF
  4. Meadows DH
  5. Choi 1B
  6. Adames SS
  7. Wendle 3B
  8. Zunino C
  9. Kiermaier CF

Noteworthiness

— Per Dan Szymborski (FanGraphs), The ZiPS projections still have the Rays as the favorite by a 58%-42% margin, but that’s a far cry from the 3.8% chance the computer gave the Astros after Game 3.

LBWMF: Rays go 0-6 wRISP in 4-3 loss on Thursday

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Ji-Man Choi hit one of three Rays’ homers on Thursday, yet that still wasn’t enough. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

There’s an old saying that goes, “You can’t win games if you don’t score runs,” and that wasn’t more evident than on Thursday, when the Tampa Bay Rays dropped their second consecutive game to the Astros, 4-3. Tampa Bay’s pitching held up for the most part, yet the offense couldn’t muster enough runs to clinch a World Series berth. The Rays still lead the American League Championship Series three-games-to-two, yet it’s the first time they have lost back-to-back games in the postseason, and the first time overall since September 8th and 10th (vs. Washington then Boston).

Tampa Bay faced an uphill struggle for most of the day. After going down in order in a 1-2-3 top of the first against right-hander Luis Garcia, they trailed Houston after the very first pitch in the bottom of the frame, when George Springer first-pitch fastball for an instant one-run lead.

And in a seemingly perpetual cycle of pain that would torment the Rays for most of the game, Tampa Bay had an excellent opportunity to answer in the second. Ji-Man Choi worked a one-out walk before Joey Wendle was hit by an 0-2 pitch one out later. Willy Adames walked to load the bases, yet Mike Zunino drove an 0-2 fastball to right that was caught by Josh Reddick on the warning track. The ball in play had the right exit velocity, measuring 104 mph off the bat, yet it didn’t have the distance.

Tampa Bay was able to knot the score at one in the third inning with Blake Taylor on the mound. Brandon Lowe welcomed Taylor with a long homer to right-center — his first home run since September 23rd, and just his second hit of the series. While that was his only hit of the game, Lowe did make contact in each of his first three at-bats (including the homer). His final at-bat of the game vs. Ryan Pressly looked to be more of the same, although he did look better overall on Thursday.

Yet Houston answered immediately, consequently taking the lead for the second time. Down 0-2, and after having seen three borderline pitches (that should have been called strikes), Josh Reddick looped a single to right. Martín Maldonado followed with a doubled to right, putting runners into scoring position. Two batters later, Michael Brantley singled to right, scoring both runners to put Houston up by two.

Enoli Paredes walked two of the first three batters in the fourth inning yet — and as the rule for the game would dictate — Adames and Zunino struck out, keeping the Rays behind by a pair.

Tampa Bay was able to get within a run in the fifth inning when Randy Arozarena homered with one out. It was Big Randy’s third homer of the series, and sixth of the postseason — tying Evan Longoria for the franchise record. They also got the tying run into scoring position in the fifth after Meadows walked and Choi singled, but Margot grounded to third to end the threat.

From that point on, Houston’s ‘pen kept Tampa Bay in check all the way through the seventh inning.

Yet with one swing of the bat in the top of the eighth, Tampa Bay tied the score at three apiece. Choi blasted a solo shot into right field that was just shy of the 450-feet foot mark. Margot singled, but as fate would have it, Wendle grounded into a 1-6-3 double play before Ryan Pressly entered the game in relief. Pressly struck out Adames to end the top of the threat.

Pressley finished the eighth and then allowed a single to Zunino to open the ninth. Kevin Kiermaier pinch-ran at first. Pressly struck out Lowe for the first out. Then, with Arozarena at the plate, Kiermaier moved into second on a two-strike wild pitch. Yet, Arozarena flew out into shallow right before Meadows popped out to center.

The Rays’ inability to score set up Houston’s walk-off home run against Nick Anderson.

Anderson, who hurled a perfect eighth, took the mound again in the ninth with the game tied at three. After Alex Bregman popped out to Brandon Lowe in right, Carlos Correa hit a solo homer to center field on a 1-1 pitch, ending the game.

All told, the Rays went 0-6 wRISP and scored exactly no two-out runs.

The New What Next

A rematch of the series openers; Blake Snell (2-1, 2.87 ERA) will get the start in game six of the ALCS, pitching opposite of Framber Valdez (2-0, 2.00 ERA).

Blake Snell got the start on Sunday and battled his way through five innings on 105 pitches (61 strikes, 58% strike rate, 20% SwStr%), allowing multiple base runners in three of five frames. Yet, the lefty gave up just one run on six hits and two walks while striking out a pair. Snell threw only nine of 21 first-pitch strikes.

The only run of the game came on a Jose Altuve homer to left-center on a first-inning 2-1 fastball at the top of the zone. It was Altuve’s fourth homer in 16 at-bats against Snell.

He also got a little defensive help from his friends, as Snell picked a runner off in the third inning, and benefitted from a line-drive double play turned by Willy Adames in the fourth.

Framber Valdez allowed two runs on four hits and four walks while striking out eight across six innings on Sunday. While he improved his walk rate during the regular season, he did not have control five days ago. Valdez issued a season-high four walks and paid the price as the go-ahead run got on base via a free pass. The southpaw still owns a 2.00 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 18 postseason innings. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (1-4, HR), Yandy Diaz (1-2), Brandon Lowe (1-4), Mike Zunino (1-3)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Astros — an ALCS preview

Rays 10/16/20 Starting Lineup

  1. Brosseau 2B
  2. Arozarena DH
  3. Renfroe RF
  4. Diaz 1B
  5. Lowe LF
  6. Margot CF
  7. Adames SS
  8. Wendle 3B
  9. Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier will not start for Tampa Bay for the third consecutive game. Kiermaier has sat out the last two games after being hit on the left hand by a 99 mile per hour fastball in game three, although he did appear in last night’s contest.

TNWN: Rays look to bounce back and punch World Series ticket following Wednesday’s 4-3 loss

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He’s a baaaaad man! (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

With visions of closing out the American League Championship Series before the weekend, the Tampa Bay Rays look to bounce back from their 4-3 loss in Wednesday night’s contest against Houston. The Rays still lead the series three games to one.

https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/1316548641763610625?s=20

Tyler Glasnow got the start on Wednesday and he was good, but not great. The right-hander allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out five on 96 pitches (55 strikes, 57% strike rate, 20% SwStr). Glasnow allowed a first-inning solo shot and an RBI double in the third inning to Jose Altuve, and a two-run blast to George Springer on a 99 mph, 3-1 fastball with the game scored knotted up at two in the bottom of the fifth. Yet, he also limited the damage by inducing weak contact and six ground balls. It was a rare power outburst against a hurler that maintained a 1.73 HR/9 in 2020 (and a 0.59 HR/9 in 2019). Glasnow enters his next start — assuming the Rays move on to the World Series — with a 4.66 ERA, 5.88 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, and a 3.1 K/BB across 19-1/3 playoff innings.

https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/1316559560413454337?s=20
https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/1316579751688130561?s=20

There were a few positives from last night’s contest. Randy Arozarena continued to rake, going 1-4 with a homer and two RBI, while Jose Alvarado made his first appearance of the fall, working around one hit in one inning of work while punching out two on 22 pitches (13 strikes, 59% strike rate, 23% SwStr%). Arozarena is now 19-43 (.442) this postseason, and his 39 total bases are an MLB postseason rookie record. According to Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), “Arozarena has five homers, joining Evan Longoria and Kyle Schwarber as the only other rookies to have that many in a postseason.”

The New What Next

Neither team has announced their pitching plans for this afternoon’s contest. Tampa Bay could use an opener or start Josh Fleming (5-0, 2.78 ERA).

In his last outing, Josh Fleming tossed six scoreless frames against the Phillies, allowing four hits and one walk while striking out six. It marked the longest outing of the season for Fleming, who has served as both a starter and long reliever this season. His six punch outs marked a season-high.

If the Rays go to Pete Fairbanks in some capacity, it would be his third appearance in four days. It would also be Ryan Thompson’s fourth appearance in five games should he get the call.

Luis Garcia, Chase De Jong, and Cy Sneed have not been used in this series, and it is possible the Astros could go with a bullpen game tonight. The four previous starters have worked at least into the sixth inning, so they likely would not be available on short rest.

You can read about the series in our preview, and while the starting lineup and any Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Astros — an ALCS preview

Rays 10/18/20 Starting Lineup

  1. B. Lowe 2B
  2. Arozarena LF
  3. Meadows RF
  4. Diaz DH
  5. Choi 1B
  6. Margot CF
  7. Wendle 3B
  8. Adames SS
  9. Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— Congratulations are in order to Rays skipper Kevin Cash, who has won his second consecutive Sporting News American League Manager Of The Year award. We will have more on this later.

TNWN: Rays look to clinch World Series berth on Wednesday

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Not Mike Trout. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a 5-2 defeat of Houston on Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays can clinch their second-ever World Series berth with a win tonight. Tampa Bay’s defense has played a huge role in their success thus far, including two defensive gems by Hunter Renfroe last night.

As Keegan Matheson (MLB.com) writes, Kevin Kiermaier — who later left the game with a left-hand contusion after getting hit by a 99.2 mph fastball — covered a lot of ground on the play highlighted above.

With runners on first and second, Correa drove a liner back up the middle that was fading and dropping to Kiermaier’s glove side as he raced in, covering 64 feet in 3.8 seconds. With a catch probability of 20%, as calculated by Statcast, it qualifies as a five-star catch for Kiermaier, which has come to be something we expect from the three-time Gold Glove Award winner in center field.

— Keegan Matheson

The Rays made six hit-saving plays on Tuesday. Overall, of the Astros’ 27 well-struck balls put into play, only eight have gotten down for hits.

The stable has also been very good. Houston has been limited to a total of five runs over the first three contests or 1-1/3 runs per game. They are 4-24 wRISP and without a single RBI to their name.

Even so, the Astros have allowed just 11 runs or 3.67 runs per game, while 73% of the Rays’ runs have come in frames when Jose Altuve has committed an error.

Still, the Rays are primed to punch their ticket to the world series. Just once in the Championship Series format (38 years) has a team come back from a three-game deficit; in 2004, when Boston came back to beat the Yankees. The question is now when will they punch that ticket?

The New What Next

Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA) will get the start on Wednesday, pitching opposite of consummate weirdo, Zach Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA).

Tyler Glasnow opened game five of the ALDS on short rest (two days) and posted two scoreless innings, allowing just a walk, yet throwing just 13 of 27 pitches for strikes (48% strike rate, 31% SwStr). Glasnow walked Brett Gardner on five pitches to open the third before Kyle Higashioka struck out looking. Glasnow was pulled after one time through the Yankees lineup. His scoreless outing followed a 5 IP/4 R/10 K start on Tuesday. Glasnow is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in one career regular-season start against Houston and went 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in the ALDS last season.

Zach Greinke allowed one run on two hits and three walks while striking out one batter over four innings against the Twins in the first game of the AL Wildcard Series. Greinke got a short hook (79 pitches) after stumbling to a 6.07 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in his final five starts of the regular season. Then, in his second postseason start, Greinke allowed four runs in 4-2/3 innings against Oakland. Even so, the Astros won both games. This season, right-handers have hit Greinke better than lefties to the tune of a .305 BA/5 HR/.849 OPS line vs. a .206 BA/1 HR/.529 OPS line. However, southpaw hitting batters have had slightly more success over his career. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-4, 2B), Ji-Man Choi (2-4, HR), Manuel Margot (7-16, 2 HR), Hunter Renfroe (6-21, 3 HR)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Astros — an ALCS preview

Rays 10/14/20 Starting Lineup

  1. Meadows RF
  2. B. Lowe 2B
  3. Arozarena LF
  4. Choi 1B
  5. Margot CF
  6. Wendle 3B
  7. Tsutsugo DH
  8. Adames SS
  9. Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— Given that Ryan Thompson and Aaron Loup have worked three straight days, while Pete Fairbanks has pitched three total innings over the last two days, they are unlikely to be available tonight. Diego Castillo has worked in five of the last eight games.