I think it goes without saying, the Rays post-season hopes hinge on their final game against the Yankees today. If they win, they can pick up the game that they lost last night to the Bronx Bummers. If they lose, they’ll fall five games behind those carpetbaggers, making it that much harder to make up any ground going into the final two weeks of the season.
In any case, with the probability of the Rays making it to the playoffs back down to 26.7%, the comfort of being able to solely control your own destiny has been all but lost. In short, the Rays are going to have to play solid baseball from here on out, and hope that they catch a break.
It also goes without saying that the Rays offensive production is (yet again) ebbing, which has had a drastic effect on whether they win or lose, especially in the last week. After coming off a surprisingly productive August where they averaged 4.32 runs per game, the Rays are again proving that runs are a commodity, averaging 4.07 per game. Saturday’s game was another hard fought loss. Shields had decent stuff, the difference being two accidents left in the zone that found their way to the seats. The defense was on…well, with the exception of two late inning misplays thanks to Melvin Emmaunel. In the end though, the blame should be put on the Rays at the plate, not in the field. A four run deficit shouldn’t be hard to overcome. However, when you go into the fifth inning with only one hit, the odds of winning are drastically decreased. On that note, Saturday was the 29th time this season they’ve entered the fifth inning with one hit or fewer. They’re 8-21 in those games.
The Rays do like Kuroda, in that they’ve been able to bat him around. And though they lost their last meeting, Tampa Bay has been able to tag Kuroda for eight earned runs on 16 hits, including a pair of homers and six walks in two starts. The key is, again, to score four or more runs today. I guess another goal would be to get more than a hit in five innings, but that goes without saying. Tampa Bay is 17-5 (.773 w-l%) when scoring four runs in a game, jumping up to 14-3 (.824 w-l%) when scoring at least five runs. …And young Matty Moore, limit any damage. The Rays are at their best when they allow four runs or fewer in a game, with a 71-30 record.
Rays 9/16/12 Starting Lineup
Jennings LF
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Joyce DH
Upton CF
Scott 1B
Keppinger 2B
Fuld RF
Lobaton C
Moore LHP