Allow me to pick up where I left off yesterday. If you need a quick primer, I received an interesting email from a fellow blogger the other day. His challenge, if I choose to accept it: answer six simple questions about the state of the Rays going into Spring Training and the 2014 season. Below are my thoughts on the questions left unanswered in my previous piece.
Which roster battle will be the most intriguing during Spring Training?
Prior to the re-signing of Grant Balfour, and the news Jeremy Hellickson would be out until mid-May, it was easy to foresee battles between Heath Bell and Juan Carlos Oviedo for the closer spot, as well as Jeremy Hellickson and Jake Odorizzi for the fifth starter spot. Since Balfour was named as the closer, and one would assume Odorizzi has the fifth starter spot while Helly is on the mend, the focus now turns to who will get a bench/depth spot on the roster, who will fill the supporting roles in the ‘pen, and what to do with Hellickson once he returns.
Tampa Bay lost bench depth this off-season. First, they chose not to re-sign Kelly Johnson, then they non-tendered Sam Fuld, leaving open a couple of spots on the opening day roster. Granted, in the scheme of things, neither Johnson nor Fuld represented consistent productivity last season. What they lacked at the plate however, they made up for in the field. Fuld was a capable outfielder, while Johnson was flexible, playing multiple positions. Expect Maddon and Co. to seek players that exhibit the qualities both Fuld and Johnson displayed, while also adding some umph at the plate. The recently acquired Logan Forsythe, veteran utility-man Jayson Nix, Vince Belnome, OF Brandon Guyer, utility-man Sean Rodriguez, and utility man Wilson Betemit will battle it out for one of these coveted spots on the bench. A cautionary tale for Sean Rodriguez: He needs to have a good spring. After all, it’s not a stretch to imagine his head being on the chopping block.
The Rays added a significant amount of pitching depth, both in the last 24-hours and the off-season in general. It’ll be particularly interesting to see how they fit those pieces into the ‘pen. What do we know so far? The back end guys — Jake McGee, Joel Peralta, and Grant Balfour — are already set. It’s could also be assumed that Juan Carlos Oviedo, Heath Bell, Cesar Ramos, and Brandon Gomes will find themselves on the opening day roster. The need for an Alex Torres-like reliever is ever present. As I mentioned back in January, Brandon Boxberger could fill that position. The Rays also need a ground-ball specialist. The still warm acquisition of Erik Bedard proves intriguing. His 36.4% ground-ball rate is serviceable. Then again, Matt Andriese owns a 55% ground-ball rate. That he has gone 26-16 with a 3.18 ERA (322.1-IP, 114-ER) and 278 strikeouts to 77 walks over the span of three minor league seasons is nothing to scoff at.
What rookie, if any, will make the most impact on the team in 2014?
Simply put, Jake Odorizzi. Enny Romero could make a dent in things as well. In my opinion, it all depends on two things:
- What happens when Hellickson returns.
- Whether the rest of the rotation can stay healthy.
What will be the final record of the team, and where will they finish in the division?
The Rays have averaged 91 wins per season since 2008, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t exceed the 90-win plateau in 2014. The pitching staff is strong, the infielders are the same, they acquired a strong catcher in Ryan Hanigan, and the bats in the lineup are solid — as long as Myers, Longo, Zobrist, Escobar, and DeJesus can maintain consistency and productivity.
The question then becomes, how do the other teams fare in the AL East? The Yankees spent a royal boat-load of money in the off-season, spending $503MM on acquisitions. But as Joe Giglio wrote in a piece for Bleacher Report,
Unfortunately for their fans, it’s hard to take an honest look at the roster and peg them for 90-plus wins right now. If Masahiro Tanaka and Jacoby Ellsbury, respectively, perform up to Cy Young and MVP standards, a different picture could emerge by October. For now, the team is only slightly better than the group that won 85 games last season.
The other teams in the AL East had fairly quiet off-seasons — including the World Series champs. Both the Orioles and Blue Jays have have deep, powerful lineups. Yet, both teams are lacking a high impact starter or two. Then there’s the Red Sox — a team that retained the core nucleus of their 97 win squad. The question begs, should we expect another dominant season, or will we see a step back from excellence? I think we can expect another competitive season from those mouth breathers in Boston. However, it’s going to be a lot closer of a race in 2014. My prediction: the Rays and Red Sox* at the top of the AL East for the second consecutive season.
Which player from your team do you most enjoy watching?
Without a doubt, Ben Zobrist. Alex Cobb, Yunel Escobar, and James Loney are run a very close second.
Noteworthiness
- A series of relevant Marc Topkin tweets, in screen shot form:
*In no specific order.